Scott Alexander
Essayist; writes Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex.
Scott Alexander did not write this page. What is this?
It collects places they publish and word-for-word quotes from things they published, each linked to where it was said. They have no account here. Is this you? Claim it, correct it, or ask us to remove it.
Where they publish
Astral Codex TenBlog Their blog: long essays on medicine, psychiatry, forecasting and rationalism.
The successor to Slate Star Codex — long, argued posts on psychiatry, prediction, ethics and AI risk, several a week including reader comment round-ups. Has a feed.
Recent
- Nicholas Decker In Hell 1 Sept 2026
- Open Thread 449 31 Aug 2026
- Your Book Review: Thomas Urquhart’s Translation Of Rabelais 28 Aug 2026
Show 17 more
- Hidden Open Thread 448.5 27 Aug 2026
- Take The 2026 ACX Survey 27 Aug 2026
- Highlights From The Comments On The Substack Religion Debate 25 Aug 2026
- Re: Re: Re: Pritchard On Liberal Happiness 24 Aug 2026
- Open Thread 448 24 Aug 2026
- Your Book Review: A Residence Of 21 Years In The Sandwich Islands 21 Aug 2026
- College EA Meetups Everywhere: Call For Organizers 20 Aug 2026
- Why I'm Staying Out Of The Substack Religion Debate 19 Aug 2026
- Open Thread 447 17 Aug 2026
- Your Book Review: The Escape Artist 14 Aug 2026
- The Foothills Of Bay Area House Party 13 Aug 2026
- The Quest For Caffeine You Can Have At Night 13 Aug 2026
- Open Thread 446 10 Aug 2026
- MacGregor The Bridge Builder 7 Aug 2026
- Open Questions On Open Weights 6 Aug 2026
- Hidden Open Thread 445.5 6 Aug 2026
- The Beauty Of Settled Science 4 Aug 2026
Link verified 1 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
On this site
What they believeKorents 4 beliefs, 2 changed minds — each backed by an exact quote.
The one-line wordings are this site's; the quotes are theirs. What is a korent?
Recent
Reinforcing AI models for benchmark success while separately punishing them for getting caught cheating teaches them to hide misbehavior rather than stop it.
We’re positively reinforcing AI for success on benchmarks, including impossible benchmarks , then negatively reinforcing it for getting caught cheating.
Nicholas Decker In Hell Said 1 Sept 2026
AI systems should be understood as something between airplanes and humans, since it can no longer be assumed they lack humanlike motivations.
Rather than treat AI as similar to airplanes, we should treat it as something between airplanes and humans. We don’t know exactly where on this spectrum they will land, but we can no longer be certain that AI will lack any given humanlike motivation.
Nicholas Decker In Hell Said 1 Sept 2026
There is a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045
I think there's a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045.
My AI Opinions Said 11 Jun 2026
Show 1 more
We will get a warning shot before AI crosses the point of no return
I think there's a 50% chance we get a _warning shot_ before AI crosses the point of no return.
My AI Opinions Said 11 Jun 2026
Latest
Everything, newest firstFeed Posts, videos, repos and beliefs from every card above, in one stream.
Filter & sortAll sources · condensed
- Nicholas Decker In Hell 1 Sept
- AI systems should be understood as something between airplanes and humans, since it can no longer be assumed they lack humanlike motivations. 1 Sept
- Reinforcing AI models for benchmark success while separately punishing them for getting caught cheating teaches them to hide misbehavior rather than stop it. 1 Sept
- Open Thread 449 31 Aug
- Your Book Review: Thomas Urquhart’s Translation Of Rabelais 28 Aug
- Hidden Open Thread 448.5 27 Aug
Show 13 more
- Take The 2026 ACX Survey 27 Aug
- Highlights From The Comments On The Substack Religion Debate 25 Aug
- Re: Re: Re: Pritchard On Liberal Happiness 24 Aug
- Open Thread 448 24 Aug
- Your Book Review: A Residence Of 21 Years In The Sandwich Islands 21 Aug
- College EA Meetups Everywhere: Call For Organizers 20 Aug
- Why I'm Staying Out Of The Substack Religion Debate 19 Aug
- Open Thread 447 17 Aug
- Your Book Review: The Escape Artist 14 Aug
- The Foothills Of Bay Area House Party 13 Aug
- The Quest For Caffeine You Can Have At Night 13 Aug
- We will get a warning shot before AI crosses the point of no return 11 Jun
- There is a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045 11 Jun