Scott Alexander
Essayist; writes Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex.
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11 Jun 2026
There is a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045I think there's a 25% chance of AGI by 2027, a 50% chance by 2034, and a 75% chance by 2045.
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11 Jun 2026
We will get a warning shot before AI crosses the point of no returnI think there's a 50% chance we get a _warning shot_ before AI crosses the point of no return.