Olivier Blanchard
Economist; former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.
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6 Nov 2023
The sharp steepening of the long end of the yield curve in 2023 was not predicted by economists, including forecasters who had modelled persistently low safe rates.It is fair to say that, while economists expected the short end of the yield curve to reflect the higher rates needed to win the fight against inflation, the sharply steeper long end of the yield curve in the last few months has come as a surprise. I shall freely admit that I did not predict it.
↗If markets are right about long real rates, public debt ratios will increase for some timepiie.com
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6 Nov 2023
With r-g near zero, any advanced economy running a primary deficit will see its debt-to-GDP ratio rise once existing debt is refinanced at current rates.Thus, once current debt has been refinanced and the average interest on debt reflects the higher long rates, absent changes in policy, debt ratios will increase.
↗If markets are right about long real rates, public debt ratios will increase for some timepiie.com