Noah Smith
Economics writer; author of the Noahpinion newsletter.
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Where they publish
NoahpinionNewsletter Their newsletter: economics, industrial policy, and the arguments of the week.
Near-daily posts on economics, US and Asian industrial policy, housing, energy and the AI economy. Free and paid posts; the feed carries both.
Recent
- Roundup #87: Technology BAD!! 1 Sept 2026
- In defense of Asian American art 30 Aug 2026
- Here’s how we’re all going to die 28 Aug 2026
Show 17 more
- The death of Market Street 26 Aug 2026
- What if our biggest problems aren’t economic? 24 Aug 2026
- Are we watching the U.S. go bankrupt? 22 Aug 2026
- Economists should be worried about birth rates 19 Aug 2026
- Where to eat in San Francisco 18 Aug 2026
- The end of an era for China's economy 16 Aug 2026
- 23 low-regret recommendations for AI policy 14 Aug 2026
- Roundup #86: Unintended consequences 12 Aug 2026
- The poverty of anti-tech thought 11 Aug 2026
- Should we "pace" AI self-improvement? 9 Aug 2026
- Banning data centers would blow up the U.S. economy 8 Aug 2026
- Are the Democrats going to save us this time? 6 Aug 2026
- The end of the age of heroes 4 Aug 2026
- Slopulism is taking over America 2 Aug 2026
- Why did South Korean stocks just crash? 30 Jul 2026
- Roundup #85: Most policy is also industrial policy 28 Jul 2026
- What will more intelligence actually do for us? 26 Jul 2026
Link verified 1 Sept 2026. Recent items update automatically from the channel.
On this site
What they believeKorents 10 beliefs, 1 changed mind — each backed by an exact quote.
The one-line wordings are this site's; the quotes are theirs. What is a korent?
Recent
True AI alignment is impossible because obedience and benevolence are fundamentally incompatible goals.
AI alignment will forever be balancing the tradeoff between paperclip-maximizing and disempowerment, because these two rival concepts of alignment are fundamentally incompatible.
Roundup #87: Technology BAD!! Said 1 Sept 2026
Humans will keep their jobs for a long time because AI agents need constant human supervision to stay on task.
In other words, humans will keep their jobs for a good long time, because someone will need to keep the AIs on task
Roundup #87: Technology BAD!! Said 1 Sept 2026
America is missing out on the global electrification revolution, the first major tech shift it has completely whiffed on.
The electric revolution is the first major technological revolution that America has just completely whiffed on.
Roundup #87: Technology BAD!! Said 1 Sept 2026
Show 7 more
Japan's loss of innovation is mostly a finance story: companies can no longer get the cheap plentiful bank loans they had in the 70s and 80s.
In the 70s and 80s, Japanese companies could get cheap plentiful bank loans to develop new products and explore new markets. Today, they can't. Innovation is downstream of finance.
@Noahpinion on X Said 29 Aug 2026
China leapfrogged the West on cars by treating internal combustion as obsolete and mastering the technology that replaces it.
Technological leapfrogging in action. China realized that internal combustion cars are largely obsolete, and mastered the he technology of the future. We didn't.
@Noahpinion on X Said 29 Aug 2026
AI-designed superviruses outweigh every other risk in the world right now.
Why AI-designed superviruses outweigh every other risk in the world right now:
@Noahpinion on X Said 28 Aug 2026
The "private equity is buying up all the houses" argument is both wrong and an excuse for deferring zoning reform.
The first of the two charts shows that institutional buyers — which includes private equity, BlackRock, etc. — own only a tiny sliver of the homes in America.
Corporations aren't the reason your rent is too high Said 13 Aug 2025
Housing affordability is almost the direct inverse of how many new homes are built, so the answer is to build more houses.
This is exactly how building market-rate housing — even fancy “luxury” market-rate housing — makes housing more affordable in general.
Market-rate housing will make your city cheaper Said 25 Mar 2024
Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022.
Even more importantly, cash benefits seem to have contributed at least somewhat to the dangerous and painful inflation that the economy is now experiencing.
Four things I got wrong since I started this blog Said 25 Jul 2022
Stocks sustained by persistent online attention can stay overpriced for long periods, so overvaluation alone does not imply a near-term correction.
Knowing this research, I should have emphasized the possibility that Gamestop would stay overpriced for a long time.
Four things I got wrong since I started this blog Said 25 Jul 2022
Beliefs others hold too
The "private equity is buying up all the houses" argument is both wrong and an excuse for deferring zoning reform. 2 hold this
The first of the two charts shows that institutional buyers — which includes private equity, BlackRock, etc. — own only a tiny sliver of the homes in America.
Corporations aren't the reason your rent is too high Said 13 Aug 2025
Housing affordability is almost the direct inverse of how many new homes are built, so the answer is to build more houses. 2 hold this
This is exactly how building market-rate housing — even fancy “luxury” market-rate housing — makes housing more affordable in general.
Market-rate housing will make your city cheaper Said 25 Mar 2024
Latest
Everything, newest firstFeed Posts, videos, repos and beliefs from every card above, in one stream.
Filter & sortAll sources · condensed
- Roundup #87: Technology BAD!! 1 Sept
- America is missing out on the global electrification revolution, the first major tech shift it has completely whiffed on. 1 Sept
- Humans will keep their jobs for a long time because AI agents need constant human supervision to stay on task. 1 Sept
- True AI alignment is impossible because obedience and benevolence are fundamentally incompatible goals. 1 Sept
- In defense of Asian American art 30 Aug
- China leapfrogged the West on cars by treating internal combustion as obsolete and mastering the technology that replaces it. 29 Aug
Show 19 more
- Japan's loss of innovation is mostly a finance story: companies can no longer get the cheap plentiful bank loans they had in the 70s and 80s. 29 Aug
- Here’s how we’re all going to die 28 Aug
- AI-designed superviruses outweigh every other risk in the world right now. 28 Aug
- The death of Market Street 26 Aug
- What if our biggest problems aren’t economic? 24 Aug
- Are we watching the U.S. go bankrupt? 22 Aug
- Economists should be worried about birth rates 19 Aug
- Where to eat in San Francisco 18 Aug
- The end of an era for China's economy 16 Aug
- 23 low-regret recommendations for AI policy 14 Aug
- Roundup #86: Unintended consequences 12 Aug
- The poverty of anti-tech thought 11 Aug
- Should we "pace" AI self-improvement? 9 Aug
- Banning data centers would blow up the U.S. economy 8 Aug
- Are the Democrats going to save us this time? 6 Aug
- The "private equity is buying up all the houses" argument is both wrong and an excuse for deferring zoning reform. 13 Aug 2025
- Housing affordability is almost the direct inverse of how many new homes are built, so the answer is to build more houses. 25 Mar 2024
- Stocks sustained by persistent online attention can stay overpriced for long periods, so overvaluation alone does not imply a near-term correction. 25 Jul 2022
- Cash welfare benefits contributed at least somewhat to the inflation of 2021-2022. 25 Jul 2022